CNN:
The US has negotiated a fragile ceasefire that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Asian allies that depend on the waterway are already being forced to rely on others for energy security– to the benefit of America’s top adversaries.
After the initial airstrikes by the US and Israel in February, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil flows.
Allies in Europe and Asia were not informed in advance of the war or asked to take part from the outset. Nonetheless as the price of crude oil surged, US President Donald Trump lambasted other nations for not sending military support and said those that need it should “take the lead” and “go get your own oil.”
They now seem to be heeding his words, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, whose economies suddenly lost their biggest source of energy imports and have been hit first by the historic global oil crisis.
US allies Japan, Thailand, South Korea and the Philippines have looked to broker deals with Iran to ensure the safe delivery of oil and natural gas. Asian countries are also buying up more natural resources from US rival Russia, while China has signaled its willingness to help alleviate fuel shortages and deepen energy collaboration with nearby economies such as Australia, the Philippines, and even Taiwan.
On Tuesday, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire under the condition that the Strait of Hormuz be reopened, providing a reprieve from climbing crude prices. However, the material impact of the agreement remained unclear.
While the US touted its success in reopening the strait, Iran said the country’s military would continue to coordinate the passage of vessels during the ceasefire, and warned that the war was not over. Since the ceasefire announcement, only a trickle of tankers have passed through the narrow passage which, before the war began, was a free and open international waterway.
Regardless of the ultimate outcome of peace talks, Trump’s decision to go to war has reshuffled energy trade and partnerships in the region, with long-term implications for the US and the nature of its alliances in Asia.
