BBC News:
If France wants to lead Europe to a new era of military self-reliance, how come its contribution to the war effort in Ukraine is so small?
That is the awkward question being posed by some of the country’s top strategic thinkers, who are pushing President Emmanuel Macron to make an urgent decision on more arms to Kyiv.
Recent analysis conducted on the ground in Poland and Ukraine shows that the French share of foreign arms deliveries is less than 2%, way behind the US on 49%, but also behind Poland (22%) and Germany (9%).
“I was concerned about the reliability of the statistics which showed France low on the list of contributing countries,” says François Heisbourg, who is perhaps France’s most influential defence analyst.
“So I went out to the main distribution hub in Poland to see how much in tonnage was actually being delivered, rather than just promised.
“Unfortunately the figures bore out my fears. France is way down the list – in ninth position.”
The official reaction to this in Paris is: “Yes, but…”
Yes, the aid statistics are unflattering, but there are other factors at work.
First, defence officials say the true measure of military help is quality not quantity. Some countries are delivering masses of outdated equipment. France has given 18 Caesar self-propelled artillery units, which are now celebrated along the Ukrainian front-line.
France, they add, is like other Western countries in having run down military stocks as part of the post-Cold War peace dividend.
Ukraine’s Caesars are fully one quarter of France’s entire mobile artillery. It cannot offer much more without making itself vulnerable in regions where it is already committed, like the Sahel and the Indo-Pacific.
“It might look like we are behind other countries, but France has every intention of playing its part,” says Gen Jérome Pellistrandi, editor of the National Defence Review.
These arguments are not without merit, says Mr Heisbourg. The problem is that by not being more present in theatre, France risks writing itself out of the plot.
“When I was in Kyiv, everyone was very polite. I had no sense that the Ukrainians disapproved of us,” he says. “In a way it was worse. I had the distinct feeling we were becoming irrelevant.”
For Mr Heisbourg the equation is simple. Ukraine will talk to countries who it knows are likely to deliver the weapons it needs. France at the moment is not one of them.
